Quebec will lead provincial economic growth in 2019


TORONTO, Canada – Quebec will lead the provinces in economic growth this year, with British Columbia and Alberta claiming the top spots in 2020 and 2021, respectively, says Scotiabank economics in its Q4 Provincial Economic Outlook. The report was released yesterdday, on the heels of Scotiabank Economics’ overall Q4 Global Economic Outlook titled, “A Most Uncertain World”, published Thursday.

“Lifted by firm job creation and an upswing in machinery and equipment investment, Quebec will lead the provinces in economic growth in 2019,” said Marc Desormeaux, Provincial Economist at Scotiabank. “Work related to the LNG Canada venture in Kitimat should propel BC to the top of the table in 2020, with an uptick in investment activity expected to drive Alberta’s growth in 2021.”

Highlights of Scotiabank’s Provincial Outlook include:

  • Population Growth: This year’s population upsurge has persisted and accelerated in some regions, which limits downside across a number of provinces.
  • Job Creation: Above-trend employment growth remains key to the forecast expansion in many jurisdictions in 2019.
  • Fiscal Policy: The provinces continue to take different financial and economic management approaches, but generally improving balances in many major economies are on a positive trend.
  • International Trade: Risks related to Sino-US trade tensions, the Sino-Canadian diplomatic skirmish and the possibility of an uncertainty-led global economic slowdown remain in place.

Read Scotiabank’s full Provincial Outlook online here.

Scotiabank provides clients with in-depth research into the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary, fiscal and public policy issues.


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