The United States (US) national debt has reached 26 trillion dollars and is expected to reach 30 trillion in 2021. The US total tax revenue is 3.2 trillion. Interest rates on its debts are close to zero percent. If interest rates were to go up to 10 percent, the US will not be able to service its debt.
In the 1970s, the US interest rate went to about 20 percent. This year, the US plans to create trillions more in US debt. Since February 2020, the Federal Reserve balance sheet grew 70 percent, the European Central Bank by 18 percent, and the Bank of Japan by 8 percent, while China’s balance sheet decreased.
The US debt to GDP ratio is 130.1 percent, the highest in US history. After World War II, their maximum debt to GDP was 106 percent.
The US has a choice: default on its debt or print an extraordinary amount of money and inflate the debt away. The US has had a trade deficit from 1982, and its trade deficit has been on an upward trajectory. The US industrial capacity has been gutted and it cannot rebuild in less than ten years and tens of trillions in investments. The collapse of the United States dollar is coming within five years.
The US household debt is $14.3 trillion at the end of March 2020. More than 8 percent of US mortgages are in forbearance, but when that forbearance ends, will they be able to pay their mortgage?
According to Moody’s chief economist, 30 percent will stop paying their mortgage. In the last 10 weeks, 42.6 million workers filed for unemployment in the US. The recent unemployment rate in the US was 13.3 percent, but in the report, it stated the actual unemployment is about 3 percent higher. It is manipulated data.
According to the US Department of Labor and Training, the US workforce in February 2020 was 164.546 million, but in May 2020, the workforce was 158.227 million.
The social unrest caused by the unjustified killing by the police of George Floyd is a prelude to future class wars in the US. US corporate debt is $15.5 trillion, which is 77.9 percent of US GDP, a declined to $19.9 trillion from $21.7 trillion.
The Federal Reserve’s buying of bonds, ETF, and cheap loans are keeping the US companies on life support. 773 businesses filed for bankruptcy in May 2020, which is a 48 percent increase.
If oil prices increase by one cent, it will cost US consumers $1.42 billion annually. The US invests in shale oil, although it has not made a profit to keep oil prices below US$80 a barrel, because it would cripple their economy, of which 70 percent is consumption.
The Congressional Budget Office said that the corona pandemic will cost the US economy $15.7 trillion during the next ten years. In the first quarter of 2020, 14 percent of China’s exports were to the US, while 16 percent was to Asian countries, which is unprecedented.
In 2018, 20 percent of China’s exports were to the US. Going into a cold war with China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela is unwise when the US is very vulnerable and cannot defeat them militarily, because China and Russia have nuclear weapons.
Russia’s missile technology has surpassed that of the US. Is the US, like the Soviet Union (USSR) which engaged vigorously in a Cold War until the USSR collapsed?
Brian E Plummer